July 18, 2019
BNY Mellon’s Lockwood issues Investment Insights for the third quarter, sees Fed expectations as market risk
King of Prussia, Pa. — Markets recorded their best June performance in decades and welcomed a recent change in tone from the Federal Reserve (“Fed”), but investors could be disappointed by strengthening economic data if the U.S. central bank chooses a less accommodative policy, according to the Investment Insights by BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors, Inc. (“Lockwood”).
Despite the rally last month, markets have only marginally pushed above all-time highs set in 2018 and now stand very close to the valuation highs established last year.
“Markets now expect that global central banks are on a path for a coordinated global easing cycle, but that expectation has also become a risk for investors,” said Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors and the author of the report. “The Fed will likely attempt to characterize any rate cuts in the second half of 2019 as ‘insurance’ designed to maintain the continued expansion, now the longest since the Civil War.
“The best-case scenario for markets would be for some modest recovery in U.S. and global economic data in the second half of 2019. This outlook could turn brighter if there is resolution to the trade conflict between the U.S. and China.”
Highlights from the report include:
For more information on these trends, please visit www.pershing.com to view the full report and relevant disclosures.
This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase, hold or sell any securities. The opinions expressed by Lockwood are as of July 2019, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Lockwood to be reliable, but are not necessarily all inclusive. This material may contain forward-looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
About BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors, Inc.
Lockwood Advisors, Inc. is a leading provider of managed account solutions. As a program sponsor, Lockwood offers access to some of the industry’s leading investment managers, provides independent research on separate account managers, and develops advisory solutions to help investment professionals meet the diverse needs of their clients.
Lockwood also offers discretionary portfolio management solutions through financial institutions and independent registered investment advisers. Lockwood Advisors, Inc. is an investment adviser registered in the United States under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, an affiliate of Pershing LLC and a wholly owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BNY Mellon).