|BNY Mellon Weekly Fixed Income Market Commentary - November 19, 2014
November 19, 2014
As this is our last weekly before the Thanksgiving holiday, we thought it appropriate to provide a market view of things that we can give thanks to this year. To say that the market expectations at the start of the year were well off the actual mark is a vast understatement. With expectations that the global economy would firmly emerge from the shadows of the financial crisis, rising rates were a widely held market expectation. The consensus expected a 10-year yield in excess of 3% and a 30-year north of 4% on the heels of U.S. growth that would accelerate into the 3% range at the end of the year. While interest rate estimates could not have been further from the mark, U.S. growth estimates are trending relatively close to the 2.9% 4Q:14 y/y expectations. The resilient U.S. economy is the first thing that we are thankful for with the following table illustrating that most data points have an either positive or neutral trend. Employment gains remain the standout performer for the economy as the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8% on the heels of an average +230k in monthly non-farm jobs this year. Concerns around the participation rate continue, although it has been largely stable for the year with structural changes providing a partial explanation for the precipitous drop off since 2008. The largest blemish on the employment picture is the lack of wage growth, which has been in the 2% range for the past five years, well below the 3%-3.5% we saw prior to the crisis. The Fed, nonetheless, is maintaining its higher inflation outlook, likely due to the expectation that wage growth will begin to accelerate as the UER approaches 5.5%.
|Investment Insights by Lockwood Advisors, Inc.
October 14, 2014
Third Quarter 2014
|BNY Mellon Economic Update
August 08, 2013
In his August 2013 Economic Update, BNY Mellon Chief Economist Dick Hoey states that he expects sustained global economic expansion, with a broad pattern of growth in both developed and emerging countries. From a longer-term perspective, emerging countries have a higher trend growth rate than developed countries, due to continued diffusion of modern technologies and the long-term uptrend in the productivity of their labor force. Cyclically, however, the countries with the best prospects for a near-term improvement in economic growth are the developed countries, as they recover from depressed levels of economic activity in response to easy monetary policy.
|Capital Markets Brief: Smoothing Out the Journey of Investing by Lockwood Advisors, Inc. - June 2011
June 10, 2011
Has diversification failed investors? And is there a right time to invest? The financial and real estate market crises that began in 2007 and the rapid equity market rise since early 2009 have left some advisors and investors wondering if the time-honored principles of portfolio diversification and the importance of proper asset allocation no longer apply. Chasing recent, strong-performing asset classes or strategies may be tempting to investors; but, unfortunately, it is often a detrimental strategy. The variability of returns among different asset classes poses difficulties in asset allocation. We believe within this variability lies the investor's greatest opportunity.
|Retirement Income Strategies in a Difficult Environment
April 21, 2011
The financial challenge facing retirees today is unlike anything they have ever experienced before. A recent survey conducted by The Harris Poll found that, of 2,151 respondents, 34% of Americans have no retirement savings and 27% have no personal savings. This situation requires financial professionals to find new and innovative ways to address the retirement shortfall. As with any challenge, we are often forced to confront long-held basic assumptions and turn them on their heads.
|Fixed Income Commentary, December 10, 2010
December 10, 2010
Taxes took center stage this week, as President Obama announced a tax compromise that would extend the Bush tax cuts for all, while also providing fairly favorable treatment of capital gains, dividends and the estate tax. In exchange, unemployment benefits would be extended for an additional year, while a surprise reduction in the payroll tax could potentially add up to 0.7% to GDP next year.
|Fixed Income Commentary, December 3, 2010
December 03, 2010
Stocks and bonds gyrated this week on growing and then waning concerns over the viability of the European Common Union. Investors had not taken kindly to the details of the Irish bailout plan announced last week. Of primary concern was the belief that the plan would do little to stop deteriorating conditions in other periphery nations.
|Fixed Income Commentary, November 19, 2010
November 19, 2010
Fixed income markets were generally weaker, as questions about the efficacy and longevity of QE2 are debated in the market. Treasuries yields were mostly higher by week's end, although they were stronger from the lows put in at the start of the week. The municipal market continued to struggle through another week of mountainous supply.
|Capital Markets Brief: Are We There Yet? by Lockwood Advisors, Inc. - November 2010
November 19, 2010
On September 20, 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) made the announcement that it has determined an official end to the nation's most recent recessionary period. The NBER concluded that the recession, which began in December 2007, had actually culminated fourteen months ago in June 2009. And, while the U.S. stock markets treated the news with a favorable reception, the declaration left many pondering the relevancy of what may be a stale conclusion. At present, there are numerous indications that the U.S. economy is not functioning particularly robustly, and many may wonder exactly how it was reasoned that the recession ended over a year ago.
|Fixed Income Commentary, November 12, 2010
November 12, 2010
As the markets continued to digest the impact of QE2, volatility picked up, with a slight move away from risk assets. Stocks retreated after returning to pre-Lehman levels last week. Treasury prices were lower on the week on weak auctions and a potential rethinking of the post QE2 trade.
|Fixed Income Commentary, November 5, 2010
November 05, 2010
The Fed launched the much anticipated QE2 this week, announcing a $600 billion asset purchase program to be executed over an eight-month period. The $75 billion in monthly purchases will focus on the 5- to 7- year part of the curve, and had far less long bonds than many investors expected.
|Fixed Income Commentary, October 29, 2010
October 29, 2010
This week's activity was dominated by expectations of next week's major events, mainly the elections and the Fed meeting. It is widely anticipated that the Republican party will control the House, with an outside chance of a Senate victory also.
|Fixed Income Commentary, October 22, 2010
October 22, 2010
The markets continue to be dominated by the prospects of QE2, with investors remaining patient with their allocation to risk. Stocks were the biggest beneficiaries this week, as bonds were generally range bound to slightly weaker.
|Fixed Income Commentary, October 15, 2010
October 15, 2010
The markets were dominated by foreclosure news, a weak dollar and strong corporate earnings during the week. The first two halted the multi-month rally in the bond markets, while the latter allowed stocks to post a positive week despite the first two items.
|Fixed Income Commentary, October 8, 2010
October 08, 2010
The Friday, October 8 employment report posted a large headline miss, with payrolls contracting by 95,000 versus a flat expectation. The employment rate held steady at 9.6%, while the underemployment rate crept up to 17.1%. While in prior quarters, this miss would have caused a flight out of risk assets, it solidified the belief that the Fed would move forward on QE2 in the near term.
|Fixed Income Commentary, October 1, 2010
October 01, 2010
Stocks posted their strongest September since 1939. The risk trade was in full force during the month, with "Don't Fight the Fed" being the rallying cry. While we worry about the complacency in the market that governments have the will and wherewithal to take care of global financial problems, the momentum is strongly in favor of risk.
|Fixed Income Commentary, September 24, 2010
September 24, 2010
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week, although its policy statement indicated that it would launch QE2 if it felt the economy was faltering. As the purchase of treasuries would have a prominent role in QE2, government bonds rallied near the year's low yields and the 10-year closed at 2.55% mid-week.
|Fixed Income Commentary, September 17, 2010
September 17, 2010
Economic and corporate data continue to be mixed, consistent with slow growth, but absent indications of a double dip or deflationary pressures. Fixed income seems to be adjusting to this slow growth -- low rate reality, and fund flows continue to strongly favor bonds over U.S. equities.
|Capital Markets Brief: A Tale of Two Currencies by Lockwood Advisors, Inc. - August 2010
August 23, 2010
Nothing seems to rattle the U.S.financial markets quite like the periodic rumblings of currency adjustment that come from China.
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May 23, 2008
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